Demographic Transition in Japan: Causes and Consequences
Abstract
Japan, like many other industrialized countries, is suffering from a declining
fertility rate. Japan's fertility problems have far-reaching explanations and implications
that are both economic and sociological. A clear analysis cannot look at this issue from
only one point of view. There are many intersecting and contradicting movements and
policies that have brought about this crisis and there are likely to be just as many
consequences.
This essay will begin with a brief history of the demographic transition occurring
throughout the developed world. It will explore the causes of falling fertility in
developed nations in general and Japan specifically. This will include both sociological
and economic causes for lower marriage fertility rates. After a discussion of the causes
there will be a description of the consequences which includes stresses on pension and
health care systems. Finally it will discuss the possible policy prescriptions regarding
how to pay for the increased demands upon the healthcare and pension systems caused by
the elderly and how to lessen their lasting economic drain.