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dc.contributor.advisorMcKinney, Hannah J., 1955- (see also Hiles, Hannah J., 1955- and Apps, Hannah J., 1955-)
dc.contributor.authorMigliore, Lauren
dc.date.accessioned2012-05-23T15:39:31Z
dc.date.available2012-05-23T15:39:31Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10920/26293
dc.description39 p.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe primary aim of this paper is to study the developing science of election forecasting and determine the two best models created by scholars in this field and update them with current data. After choosing models by Alan Abramowitz and Ray Fair, the equations were updated using time-series data ranging from the early 20111 century until the present. Both Abramowitz's and Fair's models ex post facto predicted elections on average more accurately than the Gallup poll conducted closest to the election time and are still considered valuable tools-although Fair's model performed more consistently against the test of time. Using these updated regressions, I created conditional forecasts for each model based on an array of economic and popularity rating indicators. Finally, I created my own prediction-based on the results of the two models-that forecasts a crushing defeat for the incumbent Republicans.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.ispartofKalamazoo College Economics and Business Senior Individualized Projects Collection
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSenior Individualized Projects. Economics and Business.;
dc.rightsU.S. copyright laws protect this material. Commercial use or distribution of this material is not permitted without prior written permission of the copyright holder.
dc.titleForecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparative Study of Two Multivariate Modelsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
KCollege.Access.ContactIf you are not a current Kalamazoo College student, faculty, or staff member, email dspace@kzoo.edu to request access to this thesis.


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  • Economics and Business Senior Integrated Projects [1198]
    This collection includes Senior Integrated Projects (SIP's) completed in the Economics and Business Department. Abstracts are generally available to the public, but PDF files are available only to current Kalamazoo College students, faculty, and staff.

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