A Calculated Risk: An Analysis of NFL Draft Picks and Salary Expenditures

Abstract

To better understand the task of coaching and the intensity of player evaluation, I worked as Kalamazoo College's camera-man and film manager. My work started before their pre-season camp, watching film and separating plays by type to be reviewed by the appropriate coach. Through this process I learned that the coaching staff spent a far . greater amount of time than I could have imagined studying their players' footage to get better. NFL coaches, draft experts, and analysts similarly spend a large amount of time critiquing potential NFL players during the NFL scouting combines in order to determine which round they should be drafted in. Players' draft positioning and initial salaries are often influenced by these tests and their collegiate stats. More often than not, players drafted in higher rounds tend to perform better than late round selections. Statistics for career starts and stats relevant to each position were compiled, and there is a significant slide in player production as the rounds progress. There is also a significant decrease in production from #1 overall picks in comparison to other 1st round selections. Financial data was also collected on NFL teams for a 1 0 year period to see .if team's that spent more money on player salaries were more likely to win the Super Bowl, however no such correlation was found.