The Expected Points of an NFL Player Based on Age: Regression Models & Football Statistics

Abstract

Since the beginning of history, man has been obsessed with finding patterns in the world. Ancient rulers would contact oracles to help read the patterns in the stars or in the way a flock of birds fly. By finding the patterns they hoped to unlock the secret of the universe, and gain the ability to predict the future. In today's modern world, statisticians take place of the oracles, and coaches take the place of ancient rulers, "[Statisticians] focus on the use of probability and statistics for analyzing and interpreting data in order to understand the game better, and ultimately perhaps to provide advice for teams about how to make better decisions," (Stern 4). With the help of statisticians, many coaches · hope to gain an advantage by better predicting what the opposing team will do. Statistics in sports are seen almost everywhere. They were used in very early board games, such as "Stat-o-matic" and "Sports Illustrated Football." (Both games used statistics of teams and players to determine likely outcomes of certain situations). The statistics used in these games have advanced into many of the current simulations in such games as Madden 2006 and NCAA 2006. Statistics are not only used in board and video games: they are also seen in the professional sports domain.