Forecasting the Market for New Products under Development at the Upjohn Company

Abstract

The Upjohn Co. contacted Management· Decision Systems Inc. (MDS) of Weston, Massachusetts concerning the development of a process whereby accurate predictions could be made concerning the probable success or failure of a product. Such a process would enable Upjohn to determine, in the early stages of development, whether or not a product would be worth developing. MDS was able to develop such a process. The cost of the study, however, was relatively high, and Upjohn, although pleased with the results of the MDS study, was reluctant to invest that sum in future studies. The Management Science division at Upjohn decided to perform its own study in order to determine whether or not they could perform the same analysis for less money. This paper describes the original MDS study, as well as the results obtained by Upjohn.